California · San Diego · 2026 Market Outlook
San Diego 2026 housing market outlook
Where San Diego prices, inventory, and demand are headed in 2026 — macro context, neighborhood-by-neighborhood, with advice for both sides of the transaction.
Median sale price
$875K
YoY price change
+3.5%
Sales YoY
+5–7% expected for 2026 vs 2025.
Market bias
seller's market
Macro context for 2026
The 2026 California housing market is shaped by three forces: 30-year fixed rates that ticked down from their 2024 peak (hovering 6.4–6.8% as of mid-2026), still-tight existing-home inventory (national months-of-supply ~3.2), and the now-roughly-three-year lock-in effect from sub-4% pandemic mortgages. C.A.R.'s 2026 outlook calls for ~5% statewide unit sales growth and ~3% median price growth.
Local factors in San Diego
- San Diego biotech (UCSD, Salk, Scripps cluster) continues to grow, anchoring demand in coastal neighborhoods.
- Defense and military spending under the current Congress remains robust, supporting Point Loma, Coronado, and Tierrasanta demand.
- Coastal short-term-rental restrictions enacted 2023–2025 have shifted some condo inventory into long-term rentals or sales — modest supply tailwind for buyers.
- San Diego county wildfire risk is real but more localized than LA County; insurance has tightened but is more available than in fire-prone parts of LA.
Inventory + pace
Months of supply: Months of supply ~2.6.
Days on market: Median DOM ~21 days.
Sales expectation: +5–7% expected for 2026 vs 2025.
Neighborhood breakdown
North Park
Seller's market. Inventory consistently tight.
La Jolla
Mixed. Sub-$3M SFR moves; over $5M sits.
Pacific Beach
Seller's market on rentable inventory, slower on SFR.
Point Loma
Seller's market. Updated homes go fast.
Hillcrest
Steady. Condo-heavy; SFR rare.
If you're buying in San Diego
Be prepared for sub-21-day DOM in central and coastal neighborhoods. Inland (Tierrasanta, Allied Gardens, Bay Park) is less competitive.
If you're selling in San Diego
San Diego buyers expect move-in-ready. Updated kitchens and primary baths return strong premiums. Original 1950s–1970s homes need real concessions or price adjustments.
Risks to watch
- CA FAIR Plan exposure in inland fire-risk zones (Ramona, Alpine, Jamul) raising holding costs.
- Coastal sea-level-rise insurance reforms could materially change pricing in Mission Beach, Imperial Beach, and Coronado over 5–10 year horizon.
Useful next steps
Run the math for your specific scenario:
- Rent vs buy in San Diego — see when buying breaks even at today's rates.
- Mortgage payment calculator — model your full monthly payment.
- Affordability calculator — see what price you actually qualify for.
- What $1M buys in San Diego — typical homes at that budget.